Worries over new flood plain maps

A former West Lincoln alderman is calling for an outside review of a proposal by the Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority to adjust flood plain maps for the Welland River.

Norm Johnson joins several residents affected by the changes in calling for a public process and secondary review of the new flood plain maps, which the NPCA suspended implementation of at its Jan. 18 meeting. Johnson, who spoke before West Lincoln council at its Feb. 26 meeting, said he has two main issues with the proposal. The first is that the report is based on a number of questionable assumptions. His second concern is the “autocratic” approach the NPCA took with the project.

“This proposal, in my view, is very alarming,” said Johnson. “And the process followed by the NPCA is disturbing.”

The new levels were approved in March 2011 and the NPCA allowed a one-year transitional period during which households in the expanded boundary would be able to build. Residents, including Johnson, fear the changes will impact their property values and insurance rates and will make it more difficult to get building permits.

The water level at Becket’s Bridge, which spans the Welland River on Regional Road 24, is about 172 metres above sea level, Johnson said. During normal flood times, the water will rise to about 174 metres. Following Hurricane Hazel, which could be considered the storm of the century Johnson said, the river reached a high of 174.65 metres.

At present, the 100-year flood mark, a line which represents the maximum extent of flooding anticipated as a result of the storm of the century — which has a one-per-cent chance of occurring each year — is 175.03 metres. The 100-year line also represents the point at which development is not allowed. The new level jumps up a full metre from the current level and up to 1.39 metres in parts of Wellandport. In Wainfleet, 268 households, of about 2,800 in the township, will be affected by the raised levels, Johnson told members of council. Johnson suspects more homes in West Lincoln will be affected as the township houses a larger portion of the drainage system.

“In over 57 years, we haven’t exceeded the Hurricane Hazel flood levels, let alone the 100-year flood lines,” Johnson said. “Remember, the 100-year line does not guarantee freedom from flooding. It is a line representing a one-per-cent chance of flooding in any given year. Given the restrictions on residents along the river and the potential implications for the community as a whole, this proposal needs public input and review.”

Ald. John Glazier asked how many hectares the new levels take out of production. Johnson said the changes do not take land out of production per say, but restrict what landowners are able to do with their properties.

Ald. Joanne Chechalk questioned what role the township can play in the process, suggesting that staff get in contact with the NPCA and come back with a report.

“I would really like to hear more about this,” she said. “And how we got here.”

While Ald. Sue-Ellen Merritt cannot argue with the NPCA’s defence that “determining flood lines is an engineering exercise” and that “holding public meetings would not change the scientific outcome of the modelling,” she did question why affected land owners were not notified and what the consultants used as a basis for the report. Mayor Douglas Joyner, who sits on the NPCA board, said the answer to Merritt’s first question was simple.

“The NPCA does not have to inform people who live around the Welland River and tributaries,” he said, explaining that it is the NPCA’s mandate to protect the public from flooding.

Merritt, who said she was “disappointed in the NPCA and the way it operates, added the NPCA needs to change its policies to communicate more with affected residents.

On Jan. 18, the NPCA voted to downgrade the new levels to tentative status after meeting with residents to discuss their concerns. “Staff have met with the prime engineering consultant and asked that they conduct alternate simplified analyses on certain areas of the system,” said Tony D’Amario, CAO. “This additional work should validate the existing and complex dynamic model that has been developed. We believe that given the extent of the variances from the old to new levels, and the concerns expressed by residents, that this additional check is warranted before moving forward with implementation.”

In the interim, individuals wishing to construct in the now tentative floodplain expansion area are being advised of the pending levels and that they should consider undertaking floodproofing measures in accordance with the appended draft policy.

The NPCA has also established a working committee comprised of board members and staff to develop a process for implementing new regulatory levels for the entire Welland River. The NPCA does not expect any new information until the end of June.

Source: http://www.niagarathisweek.com/news-story/3262712-worries-over-new-flood-plain-maps/